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of 1988, john mccain would have defeated barack obama. the facts are there. if people turn out, if minority voters turnout, republicans have a disadvantage to start with. latino vote, it was just huge. you look at the states, look at florida, colorado, you look at nevada, you could even argue iowa, but state after state, the latino vote, if you take it out, the democrats would have lost, even in florida, it was 61-39 including the cubans. cuban-americans are not no longer the majority in florida among latinos, but the younger generations of cuban-americans vote like puerto rican or dominican voters, not the anti-castro parents and grandparents. asian-americans, that was the biggest shift. 75-25 for obama. i remember covering the 2000 race. gore and bush. i think bush won the asian-american vote before september 11th, asian-american was a swing vote leaning republican. yesterday, it was 3-to-1 democratic. urban-rural, it's -- mirror images. it's roughly 60-40, and demographically, which areas are growing, the urban areas or rural america? you wouldn't want to bet on rural americ
to fight each other. john mccain echoed this with his famous observation how the world was tied together, and englishmen could order from his doorstep products from faraway lands and have them delivered to him. it is an early version of thomas friedman's theory which claims advanced countries that use computers won't go to war with each other. are, the starbucks theory. any two countries that have starbucks won't fight. unless they have triple espressoss. another observer-block, in a much different way, posited war would be so bloody and weaponry so deadly that no one would dare risk a conflict. all of these views assume european leaders can be rational, a stretch even in the present day. this of course vanished in august of 1914, a war sparked by one of the most unlikely of accidents when archduke franz ferdinand on his way back from a speech in sarajevo turned away from his planned route to visit a guard injured in an earlier, failed assassination attempt. of course he drove to his death, an incident that would plunge the world into a conflagration. i won't they dow they -- built into
-bills bridges. her best friends, john mccain and lindsey graham. they are in a very different place. bill manages to come back. he always was an effective economic president. he almost redeems himself by bringing peace to the middle east. she is doing incredibly important work in new york but her life is -- she becomes in a sense an independent person one more time. they are still in love but now she is the person in charge and her career is at stake. we have never had this kind of story in the american white house. we have never had this kind of personal chemistry, personal chemistry which both incredibly and riches our understanding of what took place during those years and also leaves us with an abundance of unanswered questions. now is your turn to ask the questions and i will try to answer. [applause] >> if you have a question for professor chafe please come to the microphone and asked it as a question, no statements of opposition unless it is my introduction which is appropriate. >> i can see very many hands. people will be walking up to the microphone. not that i want 400 questions
votes are clustered in those big metropolitan areas. john mccain in 2008, excuse me, barack obama in 2008 won the 28 congressional districts with 80% of the vote or more and john mccain ten by that margin. that gives democrats a lot of votes in the big states, but it also means that there's not that many democrats in the chase and districts. this time obama carried the same number of states with that percentage and romney may have gotten that percentage in one or two districts in utah. maybe it's time for political scientists and abundance to rule out another rule about locks, who has a lot on which part of the government before that rule becomes obsolete. thank you. >> thank you. now tell us about the republican party. >> i think the temptation for the republicans is in any case with going through the stages of grief, first its bid to be engaged in denial and that is what you saw with the "the washington times" piece that was read today. it's understandable. it's the human response, but it would be very smart for the republicans to get further along in those stages and not stay i
the democratic -- demographic reason is democratic votes are clustered in the big metropolitan areas. john mccain -- excuse me, barack obama in 208120 congressional bishops with 80% of vote more. john mccain 10 by the margin. against democrats a lot of votes in those big states, but it also means there's not that many democrats into chasing districts. this time obama probably cared about the same number of states with a percentage. romney may have gotten that percentage and where to districts in utah. so maybe it's time for a political scientist and as political pundits to roll out another go about ochs, who has a lock on which part of the government before that will, too, becomes obsolete. thank you. >> now and it will tell us about the republican party. >> i think the temptation for republicans, going through any case, is going to be engaging in denial. and that's what you saw with the "washington times" piece that karlyn today. it's understandable. it's the human response. but it would be very smart for the publicans to get farther along from those stages and not stay in the denial stage very
for reelection. [laughter] john mccain and joe lieberman. the reason that joe came back -- what a wonderful lady she is. >> have you finished your rounds? >> a have to do that because i do appreciate this opportunity. i came to the congress in 1972 as a young freshman congressman. i served during the reagan years of the house. i was a partisan warrior. the house tends to make you a partisan warrior. everyday you get up and try to figure out how you can beat the enemy. after a while, you say you have to change your attitude. i'm going to try to make this place work for the things i believe in. so i started working on that. what happened over the years, our biggest enemy is time. >> 20% of the members of the house leaving their office. >> they leave their families back home, they don't know each other, when i first came to washington as a staff member for a democrat, i went into the office. my job was to pour the cheap bourbon and light the cigars. they played gin rummy. i've never heard of that before. >> are you suggesting that nancy -- nancy pelosi and john boehner don't do that? [applause] >>
the demographic reason is democratic votes are clustered in a statement opposing areas and john mccain in 2008 -- arauca bowman 208,128 congressional districts with 80% of the vote or more in and john mccain 10 i that margin. that gives democrats a lot of votes in those big states but it could also mean there are not that many democrats in the adjacent districts. at this time obama carried about the same number of states with that percentage. romney may have gotten a percentage in one or two districts and utah. so maybe it's time for a political scientists scientist and as political pundits to rule out another rule about locks and who has the lock and which on which part of the government before that rule too becomes obsolete. thank you. >> i think the temptation for republicans are in many cases going through this are first going to be engaging in denial and that is what you saw with the washington times. it's understandable. it's a human response, but it would be very smart for the republicans to get further along because they cannot stay in the denial stage very long. because when we look a
was being pressured by john mccain, lindsey graham, key people on the hill go faster and the president spent a little more time to make sure that it was consensus when the region resolution from the united nations gave a legitimate say and partners willing to share the burden to get something meaningful done. which was the transition difficult as it is, that it's underway in libya. that's the way the united states prefers to do business. more the we can do that with way. it reinforces our policy and value. that probably is the most meaningful thing we can do in terms of promoting outcomes that have public diplomacy at their heart. >> paul quick. >> you can't do inform they if you don't have the benefit of the doubt of the public policy which is what the world is about. >> let me conclude by asking you a yes or no question. looking forward over the next four years, is there any realistic chance of significant reform to -- reorganization of public policy apparatus, or significant increase in funding? for public diplomacy. >> yes, yes, no. >> which one is the no? >> bbg organization possibly fu
proportion than john mccain, 71-27. we lost agents by 73% to 27%. bob dole won, a lot of people don't remember that but we are in a position now where we have got to, through differences in policies, differences in tone and differences and candidates, reach out in a way that we have never reached out before we will not be successful in the national party. >> is it possible if significantly improved up public performance with minority of voters without changing the party on immigration? >> no, it's not. it's not the most important issue among hispanics. the economy is the most important issue among hispanics but positions on immigration and more importantly toned on immigration sends a tremendous message to hispanics. to borrow a phrase from my friend todd harris, harsh tones about hispanics are like smoke. you know it's going to kill you but you do it anyway. the time is come for republicans to slap a patch on, break the habit or we are going to die. >> , do you agree, are republicans looking for hispanic voters and saying okay a lot of social conservatives they are less pro-governm
yesterday at the same four years ago if we had the electorate of 1988, john mccain would've defeated barack obama. so the facts are there. if people turn out, if minority voters turn out, republicans have a disadvantage to start with. latino vote which is huge. look at florida, colorado, nevada. you could even argue iom. state after state, the latino vote if you take it out, democrats would've lost. even in florida, 61, 39. cuban-americans are no longer the majority in florida among latinos, but also the younger generation of cuban-americans in setting puerto rican or dominican latinas. they're not voting that the anti-castro parents and grandparents. asian-americans is a big issue. 75, 25 for obama. i remember covering the race. bush actually won the asian-american vote before september 11, asian-american vote was the swing vote leading republican. yesterday was three to one democratic. urban rural are mere images and is roughly 6040. demographically which areas, you wouldn't want to bet on rural america, the population center going ahead. young and old. it is again the youngest voters are
to the poll. mitt romney got fewer than john mccain and still came within two points. the technology included the so-called system some of you have maybe read about in the last couple of days which was the republican get-out-the-vote technology to ensure people are getting to the polls. i'm told on election day it had so many hits around the country as it should have from people saying this person voted and this person didn't. but if that was under attack it closed down. so for those of you hear from again that technology field to enter some politics, we republicans want to talk to you. [laughter] we need some help. the democratic system was quite effective at micro targeting and i've heard lots of anecdotes and one this morning that you will love that somebody gets a call that's a democrat from law school and was we see that you voted and disinformation is publicly available. was it you that voted 2:00 on election day but your sister hasn't. can you call her. that's the level at that point. that led to a turnout effort that in the end makes the difference. the increase in turnout among the b
over john mccain in 2008. so they wanted to lay out a strategy, get all the people to the polls. and so with the deepest is they invested very early on, a lot of money in state offices. the republicans scoffed at that at the very beginning, saying it was a waste of money and just wait until the end. and that is one of the big reasons the president was able to win. talk to multiple people who went and did fieldwork in ohio on the ground operating as volunteers who work in washington and work out for the final weeks. they said they were able, because they didn't have to drive so far between the fatalities to the offices to get, whether that was registration forms or getting people their checklist or whatever technology they were using, that made him a difference because they could talk to more people. these are hundreds of thousands of door knobs and phone calls they were able to do. so that's a big thing. then when you look at the exit polls, there's a couple things beyond the changing face of the nation, a changing attitude of the nation. when you think about what happened on election n
, and jim web served with honor in vietnam as well as senator john mccain, senator lindsey abraham who continued to serve as a colonel in the air force reserve, and my colleague senator mark kick who is a commander in the navy reserve. the elections this month saw at least nine new veterans of iraq and afghanistan electioned to congress bringing the total of new ernst haves in the next congress to at least 16, some are still counting the ballots in some states. the people of illinois are produced that three of those 16 veterans are from our state. congressman adam kin singer, an air force veteran of iraq and afghanistan, and two exceptional leaders who will join the next congress, bill enier, a new congressman from downillinois, former adjutant general. and my friend, my shero tammy duckworth, daughter of a vietnam vet and one of the first women to ever fly a combat mission in iraq. she was combat ago blackhawk helicopter when r.p.g.'s hit her helicopter. she's worked in both state and federal government on behalf of veterans. what a proud day it will be for america when tammy stands t
when president bush was pushing very hard, when john mccain was pushing hard. ted kennedy was seeking a lead than immigration reform was defeated by 15 those in the senate or so. so i mean, there's no guarantee it will happen, but the discussion about future election in the growing from latino vote, et cetera, et cetera may be exaggerated. two years ago we were all the 19 are lots of the democrats were on the 19, the republicans were cheering and it looks like the country was going in the other direction. marriage has been defeated. so i wouldn't sort of also take these trends as written and concrete, but certainly they look favorable and a steel love that quote as i can't remember his name on one of the talk shows, it is a great week to be latino. on the rest of latin america, and i think what michael said his rate, but i also think that immigration means more for mexico and central america and the caribbean than it does for the other countries. it's important, but by and large i don't think the election changes very much the equation for south america or brazil. i was looking for so
a story recently about him, and we had john mccain talking about how much he respected him even though they don't always see eye to eye. but i will say this, i think that, um, the foreign relations panels in both chambers, um, you know, since i guess the '60s really have just not had as much of an impact on what the president does as they, as they used to. um, now, if kerry becomes the secretary of state, you know, then i guess you end up taking what he was hoping to do and having it at the administration level. but, again, that just sort of reiterates what i'm saying which is that you can't do much until you're in the administration about those kinds of things. i don't know, jason, do you agree? >> i think you made a very good point, and if i could just go back to corker also, corker is kind of this fascinating character to me that, i mean, he is in some ways almost nonpartisan in the way that he deals with a lot of people. i think this may be, you know, his background as mayor of chattanooga. but instead of going to the republican national convention in tampa over the summer, he went
did in getting voters to the polls. and if i got fewer votes than john mccain in ohio still came within two points. the technology included the so-called orca system. many of you have read about that in the last couple of days, which was the republican get out the vote technology to ensure that we were targeting people getting to the polls. i'm told on election day actually got so many hits around the country as it should have from people saying this person voted this person didn't vote, they thought it was under attack and close down. so for those of you here from again detect elegies field and with interest in politics, we republicans want to talk to you. we need some help. the democratic system i think is called gordon was actually quite effective at mike retargeting. i heard one this morning it was. somebody get the call who is a democrat, who is in law school and police chief, we see you have voted. the information is publicly available. it's at 2:00 on election day, but your sister at tulane has not voted. could you call her? that is the level at which they were dealing, wh
, you know, where the president was being pressured by john mccain, lindsey graham, greg, kenya people on the hill go faster. and the president spent a little more time to make sure that there was consensus in the region, resolution from the united nations that gave legitimacy, and partners willing to share the burden to get something meaningful done, which was the transition, difficult as it is, that is underway in libya. that's the way the united states prefers to do business. the more we can do it that way, it reinforces our policies. it reinforces our values, and that probably is the most meaningful thing we can do in terms of promoting outcomes that have public diplomacy at their heart. >> i was going to say, if you don't have the benefit of the doubt, just let public -- [inaudible] >> let me conclude by asking you a yes or no question. looking forward for years, over the next four years, is there any realistic chance of significant reform, we organization of public diplomacy, or significant increase for public diplomacy? >> yes, yes, no. >> which one is the no? >> possibly the bb
against many others. my good friend, senator john mccain -- and he really is my friend -- he and i have debated on the floor many times, but he said something that i want to quote from 2005 when there were criticisms of condoleezza rice who was being considered for the office of secretary of state. this is what senator mccain said -- "so i wonder why we're starting this new congress with a protracted debate about a foregone conclusion. i can only conclude we're doing this for no other reason because of lingering bitterness of the outcome of the election. we all have varying policy views, but the president in my view has a clear right to put into place the team he believes will serve him best." i agree with senator mccain's statement. let us get the facts together. let us find out what truly occurred before we point a finger of blame on any person in our government, let's make certain we do so with a knowledge of the facts and the evidence that we can gather. we owe it to the ambassador, his family and all the others who were either injured or lost their lives in this occurrence. i urge
, they did a better job than we did getting their voters to the polls. mitt romney got fewer votes than john mccain in ohio and still came within two points. the technology included so-called orca system. some of you maybe read about that in the last couple days which was the republican get-out-the-vote technology to insure that we were targeting people getting to the polls. it imploded on election day. it got so many hits from around the country as it should have saying gee this person voted. this person didn't vote. target calls. we thought it was under attack and closed down. so for those of you here from, again, the technology field and with interest in politics, we republicans want to talk to you. [laughter] we need some help. the democrats system i think is called gorton was quite effective at microtargeting. i heard a lot of anecdotes. i heard one this morning that you will love. someone gets a call a democrat in law school. gee, we see you voted. by the way this information is publicly voted. it is at 2:00 on election, but your sister at tulane has not voted, could you call her? that
, romney carried exactly one out of 11. i mean, he basically one with john mccain one, plus indiana which nobody really considered a swing state, plus north carolina. that's it. now, you go one out of 11, okay, then you have the senate costs. in our category we have 10 tossup senate races. and republicans lost nine out of 10. and i have to say this because i think that senator cornyn and all the folks at the rnc, i think it's one of the more talented campaign committees i've ever seen. and two cycles in a row that had the worst block, and i use lock in a broad firm because a lot of it was to what stu talked about a little while ago. when your party nominates people that are so exotic that they have little or no chance of winning general elections, that out to be very winnable, i'm sorry, that's not something that a campaign committee can do anything about. and as stu said, if your party bosses from washington dictating where candidates are going to be, or do you apply yourself to be at the mercy of a bunch of lactose. spent exotic. -- [inaudible] >> against barack obama. the stimulus, chr
the edges. and maybe running against john mccain in 2008, barack obama did well among those groups in the other states and extremely well in wisconsin and iowa over performing even by the margin in the change of the electorate that he did in 2012. so, -- >> i'm guessing the delta of between the working class whites and nationally was bigger and 12 than 08. this and i think obama's performance in the west velte is a little bit overstated by the election polls and once you begin to the the that it isn't quite as expected as the pre-election polls might have suggested. i have to drag a little but i was kind of falling asleep on the decision desk in new york and a fierce twitter debate about the nature of the early turnout data in ohio and in a ohio a closer state than the poles were giving him credit for and the model projected the tipping point stayed in this election had a 39 wind 6% chance of being ohio and actually ohio was still more than the national average. the tipping point once again was colorado. one other than come the attacks that you referred to on absolutely true what d
, john mccain accused president obama of having plans to reduce the navy to 250 ships. obama has no such plan. he is totally oblivious to these forces. but there will be lucky to end this process at 250 ships. the cbo estimate of what's possible to happen is somewheres between 270 ships from the north end, and 170 ships on the south bend. that assumes -- the south end. that assumes the current cbo cost estimates for the cost of these ships is about right, and we know from past experience that cbo always has higher estimates for the navy but in reality even cbo is a little. so the lower band of cbo ship count numbers is extremely possible, given what's going to be happening to the navy shipbuilding as the navy shipbuilding budget experiences tresses things like the f-35, if they are crazy not to buy it, which will be much more expensive to acquire and operate than existing aircraft. and there's going to be a duel with the navy budget between the f-35 and shipbuilding. they're both going to end up losing. as this shrinkage occurs in the navy fleet, it will of course also be aging.
the use of the web, and then john kerry carried it forward on sort of that aspect of it. but, boy, the bush campaign had it going. and then in 2008 where the mccain campaign had its up and then its down and then a little up and down, but the thing about it is whatever the state of the technology, the state of the art on republican presidential campaign organization efforts from '04 was lost in '08. and had to get effectively rebuilt, this time by the romney campaign. but only after they were able to get the republican nomination in april which was so late in part because of super pacs that basically kept the process going much longer than it ever normally goes. i mean, you know, historically as long as stu and i have been watching this and before that, when a candidate started losing primaries, their donors closed their checkbooks. you run out of money, you drop out of the race. and now with super pacs what's happening is, you know, sheldon edelson can keep gingrich going for a month or two more and prolong the process and foster frieze can do the same thing with santorum. so that
Search Results 0 to 22 of about 23